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Strategies for investing in the stock market
Date:2009-3-24
Strategies for investing in the stock market 投資股票的策略
(陳和興 By Tan Hoe Heng)
The primary message for people who are interested to invest in the stock market is that they should ignore market timing and buy stocks for the long term. This strategy is simple and yet effective because stocks give good returns over a long period of time. This article will highlight strategies on how to allocate their money which could prove to be useful for investors between savings and stocks.
The most simple strategy is the Buy-&-Hold strategy. One does not need to do anything no matter what happens after the initial investment is made. For example, you have $100 and you then decide to keep $60 in savings and use the remaining $40 to buy stocks. Whether the stock market goes up or down, you do not use your savings to buy more stocks or sell stocks to put money back into savings.
If you follow this strategy strictly, it gives you downside protection because your wealth will not fall below $60. At the same time, it still gives you unlimited upside potential because of the $40 that you have invested in stocks. Given that stocks in general will give you higher returns than savings in the long run, this is why many fund managers advise investors to put a significant portion of their wealth in stocks and hold on to them.
Another commonly mentioned strategy is the Constant Mix strategy. In this case, you maintain a constant percentage of your wealth in stocks. To use the same example, you initially put $60 in savings (60%) and $40 in stocks (40%). If the stock market falls by 20%, your initial $40 investment is now worth $32 and your wealth has dropped to $92, i.e. $60 in savings (65%) and $32 in stocks (35%). Note that your percentage in stocks has fallen from 40% to 35%. In order to maintain your initial 40%, you have to use your savings to buy more stocks. This strategy requires you to buy stocks when their prices fall and sell stocks when their prices rise. Put simply, it is a strategy that forces you to follow, the rule of 'buy low and sell high'.
While the Constant Mix strategy seems to be the best strategy to follow, the Buy-and-Hold strategy is better under certain situations. For example, the market is oscillating up or down, the Buy-and Hold strategy, rewards you better. Therefore, if you believe that the stock market is on a long-term uptrend, the Constant Mix strategy is not a good one to follow. However, the Constant Mix strategy is very useful in a flat but oscillating market. For example, you buy more stocks when the market drops and you sell them for profits when the prices recover. This strategy takes advantage of the up and down cycles in a market that is going nowhere.
The third strategy is the Constant Proportion strategy. Basically, the strategy requires the investor to maintain an exposure to stocks based on a multiple of the amount he is willing to risk. It follows a formula like this :
Dollars invested in stocks = mX(Present wealth - Floor) where m >1
The floor is the level of wealth where the investor cannot tolerate risky investment and is not willing to put any a cent in stocks. For example, the investor needs $60 (Floor) for retirement and is not willing to risk this amount in any investment. His present wealth is $100., Assume that m=2, he will invest 2X($100-60) or $80 in stocks and save $20. If the market drops by 10%, his stock investment will be worth $72 and his total wealth will be $92 ($72 stocks and $20 savings). Based on the formula, his stock investment should be reduced to 2X($92-$60)or $64. Thus, he has to sell $8 worth of stocks and put the money into savings.
In essence, you sell stocks as they fall and buy stocks as they rise (many like to put it as 'buy high and sell higher'). While this contradicts the convention of 'buy low and sell high', it is a strategy that is very suitable for trending market. The strategy also gives downside protection because when the investor's wealth drops to the floor, it requires him to keep all his money in savings.
Because it forces investors to get out of stocks as the market falls, investors enjoy some downside protection. The Constant Mix strategy is a form of 'buy low/sell high' strategy which is good for a market caught in a trading range. As the strategy recommends buying more stocks as they fall, there is no downside protection for investors. Unfortunately, many investors do not have any idea which part of the market cycle they are in. Thus the in-between 'Buy & Hold' strategy seems the most appropriate and simple. It is also the one with the lowest transaction costs.
There is no reason to believe that any of the strategies is best without considering the individual's requirements. For an investor who needs a minimum sum of savings to meet his mortgage payment next month, it will be inappropriate to ask him to invest more of his savings in a bear market, although the strategy might prove profitable in a year's time.
It is however not easy to implement any of these strategies. The money that is supposed to invest in stocks should be put into a diversified basket of good quality stocks. This is not possible for an investor with only $1,000 to invest or one who does not have any expertise in stock investments. The alternative is to invest in the stock market through unit trusts. With unit trusts, the investor can gain exposure to the stock market of his choice without going through the hassle of researching and constructing a diversified portfolio of stocks.
(This column has the support of the Investment Management Association of Singapore and the Stock Exchange of Singapore. The writer is Investment Manager, Tat Lee Asset Management Limited.)
有一個基本信息要傳達給有意投資股票的人：不要理會進場的時機，買入股票做長期投資。這是個簡單、有效的投資策略，能在長期帶來不錯的回報。除了它之外，本文將介紹另兩個投資策略，協助投資者在儲蓄和股票投資間分配資金。
買入后，長期持有是最簡單的。采用這個策略的投資者，在買入股票后把它擱置一旁。舉例說，你有100元，把60元儲蓄起來，其余用來買股票。不管股市起還是落，你都不會買入更多的股票，或是賣掉股票把錢存起來。
如果你緊隨這個策略，財富貶值的可能性不高，因為你始終會有60元的儲蓄，而40元的股票投資又有增值的潛能。
而長遠來說，股票能比儲蓄帶來更高的回報，因此許多基金經理建議投資者把較高比例的財富長期投資于股票。
另一個較常用的策略是“固定結構”，投資者把投資于股票的資金維持在固定百分比。舉個簡單的例子說，你原本把60元當作儲蓄，40元買股票。如果股市跌了兩成，原來的投資貶值到32元，總財富也減到92元；儲蓄和股票投資的比例因此變成65%和35%。
為了維持原來的比例，你把一部分儲蓄用來買更多股票。這個投資策略讓你在股價跌時買入，升高時賣出，簡單的說是“低買高賣”。
“固定結構策略”可能是最好的投資策略，但在某種情況下，買入后長期持有會更好。舉例說，股市起起落落時，后者會較適用；當你認為它正處于長期升勢，“固定結構策略”并不是個好的策略。股市若處在平平但又不時會起落的階段時，它會是個有用的策略；跌時你多買進，趁回升時賣掉套利。這個策略讓投資者在股市走勢不明朗時，趁起落賺利。
第三個策略是固定比例策略。采用這個策略的投資者，會根據他愿意承擔的風險的倍數，維持在股市的投資。計算方程式如下：
投資于股票的款額 = m x （現有財富－不愿承擔風險的財富）
m將高過1
舉例說，投資者有100元的資金，準備把60元儲蓄供退休后用，這筆數目便是他不愿承擔風險的財富。
假設m是2，那么這名投資者將把80元用來投資（2x（100-60）），其余20元則存起來。
如果股市下滑10%，他在股市的投資會減至72元，而擁有的財富總額也減至92元。根據方程式計算，股票投資應減至64元（2x（92-60）），他因此須賣掉值8元的股票轉做儲蓄。
總的來說，采用這個策略的話，股市跌時你賣，股市升時你買。它與傳統的“低買高賣”策略背道而馳，較適合在股市逐漸形成一個長期走勢時使用。同時，如果投資者的總財富跌至不愿承擔風險的財富水平時，他將把所有錢存起來，控制了跌幅。
這個投資策略迫使投資者在股市下滑時離場，在一定程度上保護他們的資金。而“固定結構策略”適合在股市波動時使用。不過，由于它建議投資者在股市下跌時買進，不能保障他們的財富。
投資者一般上不知道股市正處于什么狀態，因此屬于兩者之間的買入后持有策略看來是最合用和簡單的，交易成本也最低。
但在未考慮個人的需要前，不能輕易下定論說哪個策略是最好的。對一個需要為償還下期抵押貸款而儲蓄的人來說，他雖然可能在一年后獲益，但叫他在熊市時增加在股市的投資卻是不適當的。
要真正使用這些策略也不容易。投入股市的資金應分散在一籃子素質良好的股票，但對個只有1000元資金，或缺乏股票投資經驗的人來說，這是不太可能的。因此，他們可考慮投資單位信托基金，在無需花時間研究股市和建立多元化投資組合的情形下，就能參與股市投資。
（作者是達利資金管理公司的投資經理。本欄是新加坡股票交易所和新加坡投資管理協會聯辦的公眾教育計劃。）
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